Confidence for Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

In the August update to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season and has raised the total number of named storms and hurricanes that may form. Forecasters attribute this adjustment to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development - combined with the strong early season activity.

NOAA now projects an 85 percent probability of an above-normal season - up from 65 percent in May. The updated outlook includes a 67 percent chance of 14 to 18 named storms, of which seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. These ranges encompass the entire season, which ends November 30, and include the six storms that have formed thus far. In May, the outlook called for 12 to 16 named storms, including six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

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				To the left is an aerial of Dolly as she hit South Padre Island   NOAA's hurricane outlook is a general guide to the expected level of hurricane activity for the entire season. NOAA does not make seasonal landfall predictions since hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as a hurricane approaches. 8 named storms have formed already this season. Tropical Storm Arthur affected the Yucatan Peninsula in late May and early June. Bertha was a major hurricane and the longest-lived July storm (July 3-20) on record. Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coastline. Dolly made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island, Texas on July 23. And on August 5, Tropical Storm Edouard struck the upper Texas coast. Tropical storm Fay, Hanna and Hurricane Gustav followed. The latest hurricane to strike the US is Ike in on September 13th.

Check out this development of a CAT 2 to an almost CAT 5 hurricane as it passes over Cuba August 30 2008. This hurricane "GUSTAV" made landfall in Louisiana on 9-1-2008 as a CAT 3 storm. Look at the amazing definition of the eye in this animated illustration.

THE ATLANTIC DONUT FACTORY IN EARLY SEPTEMBER 2008

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